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Page 1

U.S. Nonproliferation Strategy
for the changing Middle East

The Project on U.S. Middle East

Nonproliferation Strategy

january 2013

Page 2

Acknowledgments

The co-chairs of the Project on U.S. Middle East Nonproliferation Strategy thank

the following for their assistance with various aspects of the Project roundtables

and report: David Barnett, Beth Singer Design LLC, Toby Dershowitz, Erin Elfrink,

Laura Grossman, Jamie Kamlet, Chen Kane, Elizabeth Kittrie, Galia Nurko,

Lolan O’Rourke, Debbie Rubin, Jonathan Schanzer, Abram Shanedling,

Andrea Stricker, and Christina Walrond.

For inquiries, contact [email protected]

© Copyright 2013, The Project on U.S. Middle East Nonproliferation Strategy

Page 83

remain very skeptical of any proposal that would allow the current Iranian govern-
ment to possess an enrichment capability in any form, given its long track record of
deceptive and illicit conduct.”243 Only the tightest controls over Iran’s nuclear pro-
gram and the highest degree of verification and transparency can be considered an
acceptable outcome for the P5+1 negotiations.

72 U.S. Nonproliferation Strategy for the Changing Middle East

Page 84

Chapter 3: Proliferation by State
Actors (Other Than Iran) in the
Middle East—Challenges and
Opportunities

IN SEPTEMBER 2007, AN ISRAELI BOMBING RAID DESTROYED A NUCLEAR

REACTOR AT THIS LOCATION IN DAIR ALZOUR, SYRIA. THIS AUGUST 7,

2007 DIGITAL GLOBE/ISIS IMAGE SHOWS THE NEARLY COMPLETE

REACTOR COMPLEX WITH THE REACTOR BUILDING VISIBLE IN THE

CENTER OF THE IMAGE. SYRIA’S FAILURE TO DECLARE THIS REACTOR,

AND PROVIDE DESIGN INFORMATION FOR IT, TO THE INTERNATIONAL

ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY (IAEA) WAS DETERMINED BY THE IAEA BOARD

OF GOVERNORS TO HAVE “CONSTITUTED NON-COMPLIANCE BY SYRIA

WITH ITS OBLIGATIONS UNDER ITS NPT SAFEGUARDS AGREEMENT.” 244

73

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154 U.S. Nonproliferation Strategy for the Changing Middle East

Memorandum Prepared at the Request of Congressman Brad Sherman,
March 13, 2012.

479 Brian Finlay, Johan Bergenas, & Veronica Tessler, “Beyond Boundaries in
the Middle East: Leveraging Nonproliferation Assistance to Address Security/
Development Needs With Resolution 1540,” The Stimson Center. (http://www.
stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/MErpt910.pdf)

480 Amy F. Woolf, “Nonproliferation and Threat Reduction Assistance: U.S.
Programs in the Former Soviet Union,” Congressional Research Service
Report, March 6, 2012, p. 49, (http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL31957.pdf)

481 “Implementation of Federal Prize Authority: Progress Report,” Office of
Science and Technology Policy, March 2012. (http://www.whitehouse.gov/
sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/competes_report_on_prizes_final.pdf)

482 U.S. Department of State, Media Note, “U.S. Department of State
Launches the “Innovation in Arms Control Challenge”,” August 28, 2012.
(http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2012/08/196962.htm)

483 EU Newsroom, EU-US Summit 2011, November 28, 2011. (http://tvnews-
room.consilium.europa.eu/event/eu-us-summit-november-2011/eu-us-summit-

november-2011_1 )

484 The Council of the European Union, Press Release, “Iran: EU Strengthens
Sanctions Over Lack of Progress in Nuclear Talks,” October 15, 2012.
(http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/EN/

foraff/132849.pdf)

485 Ibid.

486 “Iran,” European Commission Website, February 6, 2012.
(http://ec.europa.eu/trade/creating-opportunities/bilateral-relations/

countries/iran/)

487 “Iran: EU Bilateral Trade With The World,” Directorate General for Trade
of the European Commission, March 21, 2012, page 7. (http://trade.ec.europa.
eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_113392.pdf)

488 Ibid.

489 OECD International Trade By Commodity Statistics, OECD, 2011.

490 “Syrian Regime ‘Will Deploy Chemical Weapons as Last Resort’,” The
Telegraph, September 19, 2012. (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/world-
news/middleeast/syria/9552147/Syrian-regime-will-deploy-chemical-weapons-

as-last-resort.html)

491 “US Says Hizbollah is Increasing Support for Syria’s Assad and is Now Part
of his ‘War Machine’, Associated Press, October 15, 2012. (http://www.wash-
ingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/us-says-hezbollah-is-increasing-support-

for-syrias-assad-and-is-now-part-of-his-war-machine/2012/10/15/4296e1d6-

1728-11e2-a346-f24efc680b8d_story.html)

492 See, e.g., “Terrorist Groups,” U.S. Department of State.
(http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/45323.pdf) (“Hizballah is
closely allied with Iran and often acts at its behest.”)

493 “Foreign Terrorist Organizations,” U.S. Department of State Website,
September 28, 2012. (http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/other/des/123085.htm)

494 “Hizballah,” U.S. Department of State Country Reports on Terrorism,
July 31, 2012. (http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2011/195553.htm#hizballah)

495 “Hizballah,” U.S. Department of State Country Reports on Terrorism,
July 31, 2012. (http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2011/195553.htm#hizballah)

496 “Hizballah,” U.S. Department of State Country Reports on Terrorism,
July 31, 2012. (http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2011/195553.htm#hizballah)

497 Matthew Olsen, “The Homeland Threat Landscape and U.S. Response,”
Testimony before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and
Government Affairs, September 19, 2012. (http://www.hsgac.senate.gov/
hearings/homeland-threats-and-agency-responses)

498 “State Sponsors of Terrorism,” U.S. Department of State Country
Reports on Terrorism, July 31, 2012. (http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/
crt/2011/195547.htm)

499 Nicholas Kulish, “Despite Alarm by U.S., Europe Lets Hezbollah Operate
Openly,” The New York Times, August 15, 2012. (http://www.nytimes.
com/2012/08/16/world/europe/hezbollah-banned-in-us-operates-in-europes-

public-eye.html?pagewanted=all)

500 Nicholas Kulish, “Despite Alarm by U.S., Europe Lets Hezbollah Operate
Openly,” The New York Times, August 15, 2012. (http://www.nytimes.
com/2012/08/16/world/europe/hezbollah-banned-in-us-operates-in-europes-

public-eye.html?pagewanted=all)

501 Nicholas Kulish, “Despite Alarm by U.S., Europe Lets Hezbollah Operate
Openly,” The New York Times, August 15, 2012. (http://www.nytimes.
com/2012/08/16/world/europe/hezbollah-banned-in-us-operates-in-europes-

public-eye.html?pagewanted=all)

502 Nicholas Kulish, “Despite Alarm by U.S., Europe Lets Hezbollah Operate
Openly,” The New York Times, August 15, 2012. (http://www.nytimes.
com/2012/08/16/world/europe/hezbollah-banned-in-us-operates-in-europes-

public-eye.html?pagewanted=all).

503 See, e.g., “Foreign Terrorist Organizations,” U.S. Department of State
Website, September 28, 2012. (http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/other/
des/123085.htm); http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/45323.
pdf - LG dead link; Matt Apuzzo, “Iran is Fined in Beirut Marine Deaths,”
Marine Corps Times, September 7, 2007. (http://www.marinecorpstimes.com/
news/2007/09/ap_beirutfine_070907/)

504 Benjamin Weinthal, “US Senators Urge the EU to Outlaw Hezbollah,” The
Jerusalem Post, September 23, 2012. (http://www.jpost.com/International/
Article.aspx?id=285904)

505 Anna Wetter, Enforcing European Union Law on Exports of Dual-Use
Goods, (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009), page 59. (http://books.sipri.
org/files/RR/SIPRIRR24.pdf)

506 “The Dual-use Export Control System of the European Union: Ensuring
Security and Competitiveness in a Changing World,” European Commission,
June 30, 2011, page 14. (http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2011/june/tra-
doc_148020.pdf).

507 “Persian Gulf De-mining Exercise Sends Message to Iran,” IISS Voices,
September 26, 2012.

508 “Syrian Chemical Arms Use Would Draw Immediate Response: NATO,”
Yahoo News/Reuters, December 4, 2012, (http://news.yahoo.com/natos-ras-
mussen-warns-reaction-chemical-weapons-105734624--business.html).

509 Joe Sterling, “NATO OKs Patriots and Delivers Warning: ‘Don’t Even
Think About Attacking Turkey,’” CNN, December 12, 2012,
(http://www.cnn.com/2012/12/04/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html)

510 NATO, Press Release, “Fact Sheet: NATO on Weapons of Mass
Destruction,” April 24, 1999. (http://www.fas.org/man/nato/
natodocs/99042409.htm)

511 “Weapons of Mass Destruction,” NATO Website, accessed August 2, 2012.
(http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_50325.htm)

512 “NATO Mediterranean Dialogue,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization,
June 15, 2012. (http://www.nato.int/cps/en/SId-20d17C50-05EA51A6/natol-
ive/topics_60021.htm)

513 “Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI),” North Atlantic Treaty
Organization Website, November 18, 2011. (http://www.nato.int/cps/en/SId-
A34B67Fd-90C2FCd5/natolive/topics_58787.htm)

514 “Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI),” North Atlantic Treaty
Organization Website, November 18, 2011. (http://www.nato.int/cps/en/SId-
A34B67Fd-90C2FCd5/natolive/topics_58787.htm)

515 “Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI),” North Atlantic Treaty
Organization Website, November 18, 2011. (http://www.nato.int/cps/en/SId-
A34B67Fd-90C2FCd5/natolive/topics_58787.htm)

516 Luke Coffey, “NATO: The Chicago Summit and U.S. Policy,” The Heritage
Foundation, April 26, 2012. (http://foreignaffairs.house.gov/112/HHRG-112-
FA14-WState-CoffeyL-20120426.pdf)

517 Victor Comras, “Pressuring Milosevic: Financial Pressure Against Serbia
and Montenegro, 1992-1995,” CNAS, January 2011, page 64.

518 Victor Comras, “Pressuring Milosevic: Financial Pressure Against Serbia
and Montenegro, 1992-1995,” CNAS, January 2011, page 63.

Page 166

Project on U.S. Middle East
Nonproliferation Strategy

ABOUT THE PROJECT

The non-partisan Project on U.S. Middle East Nonproliferation Strategy

convened five not-for-attribution roundtables at which leading experts from

the U.S. government, think tanks, and academia discussed how to more

effectively address Middle East nonproliferation challenges and opportuni-

ties in light of paradigm-shifting regional developments, including the turmoil

in Syria (with its massive chemical arsenal), the replacement of an Egyptian

government which had rejected a nuclear option, the rise of Islamist parties

in Egypt and elsewhere, and Iran’s advancing nuclear program. This report

includes the Project co-chairs’ recommendations for U.S. Middle East nonpro-

liferation policy. Many of these recommendations are drawn from or inspired

by the roundtable discussions. However, they are attributable only to the

Project co-chairs, in their personal capacities.

CO-CHAIRS OF THE PROJECT

David Albright
President, Institute for Science and International Security

Mark Dubowitz
Executive Director, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Orde Kittrie
Professor of Law, Sandra Day O’Connor College of Law,
Arizona State University

Leonard Spector
Deputy Director, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies,
Monterey Institute of International Studies

Michael Yaffe
Professor, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies,
National Defense University

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