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Page 95

time lag of six to nine months before changes in
wholesale prices of beans are reflected in retail
prices and consumption of cocoa products (Fig-
ure i5). During 1958 and 1959, moreover,
various techniques for economizing cocoa beans
were carried forward in many of the major con-
suming countries. The relatively low prices in
the first half of 1960 are, however, expected to
stimulate consumption, which should develop with
increasing momentum in 1960/61. For the year
1960 the Statistics Committee of the FAO Cocoa
Study Group estimated that grindings would. be
6.5 percent higher than the 832,000 tons in 1959.

The production of cocoa is rising, but as yet
the long-term outlook is difficult to evaluate. It
is not yet clear how rn.uch of the recent increase
in pro duction is due to new planting and how much
to measures taken against diseases and pests. There
are considerable potentialities for further expan-
sion of cocoa production in South and Central
America and parts of Africa and Asia, but the ac-
tual course of production will be influenced by
the trend of prices. Unless production continues
to expand in 1960/61 at the rate of the last two
years, which is unlikely, the gap between produc-
tion and consumption will become narrower in
1961. Lower prices will stimulate the consump-
tion of chocolate products and are likely to reduce
the use of substitutes. Rising standards of living
in Africa, Asia and Latin America should make
possible considerable market expansion in these
areas. Consumption may also rise in the U. S. S. R.
and Eastern Europe, where it has been depressed
by very high retail prices, but the quantities in-
volved would be small relative to world prices.


The outstanding events in 1959 were the steep
increase in world output from 3.5 to 4.5 million
tons in the 1959/60 season, and the substantial
rise in world imports from 2.2 to approximately
2.5 million tons (Table 23). More than So percent
of the increase in world production is due to the
record crop in Brazil, unofficially put at around
2.5 million tons. Large crops were also harvested
in Colombia, Mexico, the main African growing
reabions7 and India.

Exports from Brazil rose by 45 percent
to nearly 1.1 million tons. Colombia exported
385,000 tons, 18 percent more than in 1958. World


consumption was stimulated by the general re-
duction of retail prices, relatively low consumer
stocks, and good economic conditions in the main
markets. An encouraging feature was the rise
in imports into Eastern Europe, which in 1959
took so percent more coffee than a year earlier,
but even so the imports of these countries are only
a little more than 40 percent of the prewar volume.

Trade with Eastern Europe is not regulated
wider the International Coffee Agreement, which
limits exports during the Agreement year to about
2.22 111111i011. t011S. The total quantity likely to
be exported (including that from nonparticipating
countries), at 2.55 million tons, is in fairly close
balance with present world requirements. The
restriction of exports has led, however, to very
substantial additions to stocks in producing coun-

' Crop years 1958/59 and 1959/60. - C Exeludi 1g imports for re-export. -
' 30 June 1959 and 30 June 1960. - France, Western Germany, United
Kingdom, Netherlands, Italy.


1958 1959


PRODIJCTION . Thousand metric tons. . Percentage

North and Central America 466 575 -I- 23
South America 2 276 3 155 + 39
Africa 593 652 + 10
Asia and Oceania 144 149 +3

WORLD TOTAL 3 479 4 531 + 30


Unitcd States 1 210 1 395 + 15
Other Western Hemisphere 103 90 - 13
Western Europe 789 864 +9
Eastern Europe 28 42 + 50
Africa 58 65 + 12
Asia 28 33 + 18
Oceania 8 12 + 50

WORLD TOTAL 2 224 2 501 + 12

PRICES (ex dock Nev., York) . U.S. cents per pound .

Santos 4 48.4 37.0 - 24
Colombian MANS 52.3 45.2 - 14
Native Uganda Robusta 37.6 28.7 - 22
Ivory Coast, Robusta courant 36.5 27.0 - 26

STOCKS (at end of season )3 ...7'hot jsand netric tons. .

Brazil 1 440 2 640 + 83
Colomb' 250 298 + 19
Ivory Coast 25 40 + 60

TOTAL ABOVE 1 605 2 978 + 86

United States 137 170
Europe 71

Page 96

tries; government-held stocks in the three largest
producing countries increased by 1.4 million tons,
and were on 30 June 1960 equivalent to one
year's world consumption. On the other hand,
the limitation of exports has effectively prevented
a price slump. Between March and June 1960
coffee prices fluctuated by no more than 5 percent.
Nevertheless, 1959 average prices were about zo
percent less than in 1958, and lower than in any
year since 1949. Owing to greater demand for
high quality coffee, prices of milds were relatively
better maintained.

Adverse weather during the last months of
1959 is reported to llave affected Brazil's 1960/61
crop, now forecast at less than 2 million tons, and
world output in the next crop year is likely to be
substantially less than th.e 1959/60 record. How-
CVCT, the SiZe Of the 1959/60 crop was only in
part due to favorable weather and reflects to a
greater extent the coming into bearing of large
new areas planted with high-yielding strains.
Barring very bad weather, this would suggest a
continuation of crops between 4.0 and. 4.5 million
tons in the -years to come. With ample stocks
in importing countries, world imports are not likely
to show further gains in 1960. United States
imports in the first six months of 1960 were
5 percent lower than a year before. However, the
limitation of supplies, if economically feasible for
producing countries, may effectively stem the price
decline in the short run.

Although world imports and domestic consump-
tion of coffee will rise in the coming years, it is
unlikely that the armual increase will exceed 5
percent, even at present reduced prices. The pro-
posal has been advanced to extend the International
Coffee Agreement for another year and consider
in the meantime the conclusion of an export
agreement for five years, to provide time for pro-
ducing countries to enact and carry out measures of
production control, at present still at the planning
stage. Unless such measures are taken, stocks
will continue to accumulate in producing countries
and could reach twice their present size three to
four years from now.


Despite adverse weather in early 1959, world
tea prod.uction was about the same as in 1958.
Slight declines in southern India and Indonesia


were offset by larger crops in Africa and northern
India. The year's output is currently estimated
at 750-755,000 tons. World imports Were about
30,000 tons below the 560,000 tons recorded in
1958, owing to a 14 percent decline in the net
imports of the United Kingdom (216,800 tons)
and to smaller offtake in some North African and
Near Eastern markets. Other Western European
countries, Callada, South Africa and Oceania
showed no advance over 1958, whereas slightly
higher imports were recorded in the United States
and Eastern Europe. Shipments from India fell
by about io percent, while African exports rose
in une with expanding output.

Per caput consumption of tea in the main im-
porting countries is thus likely to have declined
in 1959. Although consumption requirements in
the United. Kingdom were supplemented from
stocks, per caput offtake, at 9.- pounds, was about
2 percent below 1958. However, the shortfall
in consumption in importing markets was com-
pensated by greater internal demand in producing
countries, especially India and Pakistan. World
requirements were thus in balance with available
supplies, and no large carry-over stocks accumulated
in producing countries. Annual average prices
at the main auction centers llave continued re-
markably stable, fluctuating by no more than
5 percent in 1957-59. Larger domestic consump-
tion helped, moreover, to raise the price of plain
tea to more profitable levels than in the past
few years.

Unfavorable weather reduced. the Indian crop
in the first half of 1960, but indications are that
output will continue to rise elsewhere. Produc-
tion in Africa is steadily expanding, rehabilitation
plans in Ceylon are begiiming to be implemented,
larger acreages llave been planted in Pakistan,
and, in general, profitable prices in 1959 will
stimulate improvements on existing plantations.
World imports in 1960 are likely to recover or
surpass the 1958 volume. Relatively low Unit-
ed Kingdom stocks at the turn of the year sus-
tained trade activity in the first four or five months
of 1960 and, if domestic demand gains further
strength, prices can be expected to fluctuate only
seasonally around their present levels. In the
longer term, however, the foreseeable expansion
of production may overtake the gradual improve-
ment in consumption, especially if Mainland
China and Latin America enter world markets
on a larger scale.

Page 190

In addition to the usual review of the recent world food and agricultural
situation, each issue of this report from 1956 has included one or more spe-
cial studies of problems of longer-term interest. Special studies in earlier
issues have covered the following subjects:

Some factors influencing the growth of international trade in agricultural

World fisheries: General trends and outlook with examples from selected

Factors influencing the trend of food consumption.

Postwar changes in sonic institutional factors affecting agriculture.

Food and agricultural developments in Africa South of the Sahara.

The growth of forest industries and their impact on the world's forests.

Agricultural incomes and levels of living in countries at different stages of
economic development.

Some general problems of agricultural development in less-developed
countries in the light of postwar experience.

Page 191

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