Document Text Contents
Page 59
50
view of whether or not it supports this answer. Contrary to intuitive analysis, where evidence is
gathered after generating the most probable solution, ACH follows the fundamental precept of
scientific method by rejecting or eliminating hypotheses, while tentatively accepting only those
hypotheses that cannot be refuted. The most likely hypothesis is the one with the least evidence
against it, not the one with the most evidence for it. This simple switch in perspective forces the
analyst to ask questions and seek evidence that would not otherwise be considered.175 By using
ACH analysts are required to set aside preconceptions and seek for inconsistencies in the data
that may indicate a flaw in their reasoning. Disproving hypotheses with ACH, rather than
satisficing a conclusion, is an exercise in evaluation and process management, thus reducing
cognitive limitations and analyst bias.
Intelligence analysis is a complex application, which demands critical analytical
judgment that does not guarantee certainty. In other words, there are no slam dunks in
forecasting future events no matter how reassuring evidence may prove; as was the case in 2002,
when former CIA chief George Tenet remarked when commenting on the certainty that Iraq had
WMDs. Despite the preponderance of intelligence information that encouraged the Bush
administration to invade Iraq, erroneous methods in evidence acquisition and analysis ultimately
yielded a false positive as no biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons were found.
By applying an analytical model that provides an unbiased methodology for weighing
judgments false positives due to cognitive biases can be reduced. Analysts opting not to use a
methodology based on a process-oriented approach will often work intuitively to satisfy the most
175 Ibid., p. 37.
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51
is consistent with the evidence.176 The satisficing approach consequence is that numerous
explanations can be consistent with the evidence and, unless every reasonable alternative is
considered, an incorrect conclusion may be derived. Another frequent problem with using the
satisficing strategy includes the failure to generate appropriate alternative hypotheses.
Furthermore, application of satisficing tends to support conclusions that are often not thoroughly
interpreted from multiple facets. Also, intuition fails to acknowledge the consistency of the
evidence: the pertinence of evidence and its relationship between hypotheses.177
The application of an unbiased methodology from the collection of the best available
information for uncertain indicators is the ultimate goal for intelligence analysts, however,
minimizing predisposed notions tends to be rather difficult, as it is a natural predisposition that
with the absence of certainty analysts seek solutions that may best fit a particular model.
Accurate intelligence analysis requires accurate perceptions. Yet human perception is fraught
with common pitfalls.178 According to Heuer, these consequences of biased perception are
multifold:
-
by human nature, greater amounts of unambiguous information is
needed to recognize unexpected phenomena. Perception is not only
influenced by the content in which it occurs, but analysts are also
predisposed and pays particular attention to an unconscious list of
information and organizes this data due to past experiences,
176 Heuer, Improving Intelligence Analysis with ACH, p. 29, 35.
177 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Using Subjective Logic, (University of
Queensland, 2005), p. 2
178 Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, p. 7.
Page 118
109
Pollack, Jonathan D. No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security.
Routledge and the International Institute for Strategic Studies: New York, 2011.
Sopranos State. Time Magazine. Vol. 170 Issue 4, July 2007.
. Vanity Fair (August 5, 2009), http://www.
vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/09/office-39-200909?printable=true (accessed May
2013).
Royce, Edward R. Gangster Regime: How North Korea Counterfeits United States Currency.
Office staff report to House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Tony Lantos, 12
March 2007.
Sagan, Scott D. and Waltz, Kenneth N. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate.
W.W. Norton and Co.: New York, 2013.
Simon, Herbert A. Making Management Decisions: The Role of Intuition and Emotion The
Academy of Management Executive. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Feb. 1987): 57-64.
Smith, Hazel. Hungry for Peace: International Security, Humanitarian Assistance, and Social
Change in North Korea. Washington D.C.: United States Institute of Peace, 2005.
The Use and Counterfeiting of United States Currency Abroad, Part 3. Washington D.C.:
Report to Congress from Secretary of the US Department of Treasury, September 2006.
Transnational Organized Crime: A Growing Threat to National and International Security.
Washington D.C.: National Security Council, http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/
eop/nsc/transnational-crime/threat (accessed 10 December 2013).
Treasury Sanctions Bank and Official Linked to North Korean Weapons of Mass Destruction
Programs. US Department of the Treasury (11 March 2013) http://www.treasury.
gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl1876.aspx (assessed 10 December 2013).
Trimble, Meridee Jean. US
(masters thesis, Naval Postgraduate School at Monterrey, California, December 2007), 1-
91.
All About The Benjamins: US The Two-Way,
National Public Radio (7 October 2013), http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013
/10/07/ 230179216/all-about-the-benjamins-u-s-introduces-new-100-note (accessed 10
December 2013).
Page 119
110
CURRICULUM VITA
Michael Yatskievych was born in Bad Kreuznach, Germany. The son of Ukrainian and
Korean immigrants, George Yatskievych and Kuna Na, Michael graduated from Maxine L.
Sylva High School for Health Professions, El Paso, Texas, in the spring of 1999 and entered The
advertising and history, Michael worked as a healthcare professional, where he inadvertently
became more exposed to intelligence analysis by providing rehabilitative services to several
members of the intelligence community. After completing his undergraduate studies he earned
his teaching certificate. While teaching math and science Michael found his professional calling
that would best fit his varied academic and ethnic background. To better hone his potential craft,
he concentrated his energies in not only becoming more diplomatically aware of intelligence in
the global arena, but also, how strategic and tactical methods of national security objectives are
implemented with the encouragement of his paternal legacy in intelligence. In the spring of 2010,
he entered the Graduate School at The University of Texas at El Paso and enrolled in the
Intelligence and National Security Studies program.
Permanent Address: 8181 La Frontera Trail
Arlington, Texas 76002
This thesis was typed by Michael Yatskievych
50
view of whether or not it supports this answer. Contrary to intuitive analysis, where evidence is
gathered after generating the most probable solution, ACH follows the fundamental precept of
scientific method by rejecting or eliminating hypotheses, while tentatively accepting only those
hypotheses that cannot be refuted. The most likely hypothesis is the one with the least evidence
against it, not the one with the most evidence for it. This simple switch in perspective forces the
analyst to ask questions and seek evidence that would not otherwise be considered.175 By using
ACH analysts are required to set aside preconceptions and seek for inconsistencies in the data
that may indicate a flaw in their reasoning. Disproving hypotheses with ACH, rather than
satisficing a conclusion, is an exercise in evaluation and process management, thus reducing
cognitive limitations and analyst bias.
Intelligence analysis is a complex application, which demands critical analytical
judgment that does not guarantee certainty. In other words, there are no slam dunks in
forecasting future events no matter how reassuring evidence may prove; as was the case in 2002,
when former CIA chief George Tenet remarked when commenting on the certainty that Iraq had
WMDs. Despite the preponderance of intelligence information that encouraged the Bush
administration to invade Iraq, erroneous methods in evidence acquisition and analysis ultimately
yielded a false positive as no biological, chemical, or nuclear weapons were found.
By applying an analytical model that provides an unbiased methodology for weighing
judgments false positives due to cognitive biases can be reduced. Analysts opting not to use a
methodology based on a process-oriented approach will often work intuitively to satisfy the most
175 Ibid., p. 37.
Page 60
51
is consistent with the evidence.176 The satisficing approach consequence is that numerous
explanations can be consistent with the evidence and, unless every reasonable alternative is
considered, an incorrect conclusion may be derived. Another frequent problem with using the
satisficing strategy includes the failure to generate appropriate alternative hypotheses.
Furthermore, application of satisficing tends to support conclusions that are often not thoroughly
interpreted from multiple facets. Also, intuition fails to acknowledge the consistency of the
evidence: the pertinence of evidence and its relationship between hypotheses.177
The application of an unbiased methodology from the collection of the best available
information for uncertain indicators is the ultimate goal for intelligence analysts, however,
minimizing predisposed notions tends to be rather difficult, as it is a natural predisposition that
with the absence of certainty analysts seek solutions that may best fit a particular model.
Accurate intelligence analysis requires accurate perceptions. Yet human perception is fraught
with common pitfalls.178 According to Heuer, these consequences of biased perception are
multifold:
-
by human nature, greater amounts of unambiguous information is
needed to recognize unexpected phenomena. Perception is not only
influenced by the content in which it occurs, but analysts are also
predisposed and pays particular attention to an unconscious list of
information and organizes this data due to past experiences,
176 Heuer, Improving Intelligence Analysis with ACH, p. 29, 35.
177 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Using Subjective Logic, (University of
Queensland, 2005), p. 2
178 Heuer, Psychology of Intelligence Analysis, p. 7.
Page 118
109
Pollack, Jonathan D. No Exit: North Korea, Nuclear Weapons and International Security.
Routledge and the International Institute for Strategic Studies: New York, 2011.
Sopranos State. Time Magazine. Vol. 170 Issue 4, July 2007.
. Vanity Fair (August 5, 2009), http://www.
vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/09/office-39-200909?printable=true (accessed May
2013).
Royce, Edward R. Gangster Regime: How North Korea Counterfeits United States Currency.
Office staff report to House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Tony Lantos, 12
March 2007.
Sagan, Scott D. and Waltz, Kenneth N. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: An Enduring Debate.
W.W. Norton and Co.: New York, 2013.
Simon, Herbert A. Making Management Decisions: The Role of Intuition and Emotion The
Academy of Management Executive. Vol. 1, No. 1 (Feb. 1987): 57-64.
Smith, Hazel. Hungry for Peace: International Security, Humanitarian Assistance, and Social
Change in North Korea. Washington D.C.: United States Institute of Peace, 2005.
The Use and Counterfeiting of United States Currency Abroad, Part 3. Washington D.C.:
Report to Congress from Secretary of the US Department of Treasury, September 2006.
Transnational Organized Crime: A Growing Threat to National and International Security.
Washington D.C.: National Security Council, http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/
eop/nsc/transnational-crime/threat (accessed 10 December 2013).
Treasury Sanctions Bank and Official Linked to North Korean Weapons of Mass Destruction
Programs. US Department of the Treasury (11 March 2013) http://www.treasury.
gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl1876.aspx (assessed 10 December 2013).
Trimble, Meridee Jean. US
(masters thesis, Naval Postgraduate School at Monterrey, California, December 2007), 1-
91.
All About The Benjamins: US The Two-Way,
National Public Radio (7 October 2013), http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2013
/10/07/ 230179216/all-about-the-benjamins-u-s-introduces-new-100-note (accessed 10
December 2013).
Page 119
110
CURRICULUM VITA
Michael Yatskievych was born in Bad Kreuznach, Germany. The son of Ukrainian and
Korean immigrants, George Yatskievych and Kuna Na, Michael graduated from Maxine L.
Sylva High School for Health Professions, El Paso, Texas, in the spring of 1999 and entered The
advertising and history, Michael worked as a healthcare professional, where he inadvertently
became more exposed to intelligence analysis by providing rehabilitative services to several
members of the intelligence community. After completing his undergraduate studies he earned
his teaching certificate. While teaching math and science Michael found his professional calling
that would best fit his varied academic and ethnic background. To better hone his potential craft,
he concentrated his energies in not only becoming more diplomatically aware of intelligence in
the global arena, but also, how strategic and tactical methods of national security objectives are
implemented with the encouragement of his paternal legacy in intelligence. In the spring of 2010,
he entered the Graduate School at The University of Texas at El Paso and enrolled in the
Intelligence and National Security Studies program.
Permanent Address: 8181 La Frontera Trail
Arlington, Texas 76002
This thesis was typed by Michael Yatskievych
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