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TitleModel-Based Appraisal of Alcohol Minimum Pricing and Off-Licensed Trade Discount Bans in
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Page 1

University of Sheffield – Appraisal of alcohol minimum pricing and off-trade discount bans in Scotland

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MODEL-BASED APPRAISAL OF ALCOHOL
MINIMUM PRICING AND OFF-LICENSED TRADE

DISCOUNT BANS IN SCOTLAND


A Scottish adaptation of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy
Model version 2



























© ScHARR, University of Sheffield, September 2009.

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University of Sheffield – Appraisal of alcohol minimum pricing and off-trade discount bans in Scotland

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3.3.5 Alternative crime AFs

The alternative assumptions around crime attribution can make quite a substantial difference

to the results. This is expected given the uncertainty in the evidence base around the link

between alcohol and crime. For example, for a 40p minimum price, if it is assumed that crime

is attributable to alcohol if it is reported as one of the reasons for committing a crime then the

annual reduction in offences is estimated at 1,100. If it is assumed that the crime is only

attributable if alcohol is the only reported reason for a crime (no co-factors) then the

estimated reduction drops to 500. Setting aside the issues around the accuracy and

representativeness of a self-reported survey, such an estimate might represent a worst-case

estimate of crime harm reduction. If it is assumed that crime is attributable to alcohol if the

offender is (self-reported) intoxicated at the time of committing the crime then the annual

reduction in offences is estimated at 2,400. This is likely to represent a best-case estimate of

crime harm reduction, although it should be noted that such an approach has previously

been taken by the UK Government when calculating the cost of alcohol misuse to the

economy (Cabinet Office, 2003; Department of Health, 2008).

-30,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70

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Basecase

Lower AFs

Higher AFs


Figure 3.10: Change in overall volume of crimes per annum for minimum price policies, using

alternative assumptions for the attribution of crimes to alcohol consumption

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University of Sheffield � Appraisal of alcohol minimum pricing and off-trade discount bans in Scotland

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4 SUMMARY OF RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This section summarises the key model findings, provides a brief comparison against

previous results for the population of England and outlines the limitations of the study and

recommendations for potential future research.

4.1 SUMMARY OF MODEL FINDINGS

4.1.1 Changes to consumption

M1. Increasing levels of minimum pricing show steep increases in effectiveness: overall

estimated changes in consumption are:

Minimum price Change in
consumption

25p -0.2%
30p -0.5%
35p -1.3%
40p -2.7%
45p -4.7%
50p -7.2%
55p -10.0%
60p -12.9%
65p -15.9%
70p -18.9%


Note that estimates for lower minimum prices are subject to less modelling

uncertainty than those for higher minimum prices. This is because the consideration

of supply-side responses, and in particular a possible restructuring of the market

following large mandated price increases in sections of the market, was outside the

scope of the model.

M2. Lower minimum price thresholds are associated with reductions in beer/cider and

spirit consumption but increases in wine consumption due to switching. For example,

for a 30p threshold, beer/cider consumption reduces by 4.1 units per drinker per

annum, spirit consumption reduces by 3.2 units, RTD consumption is virtually

unchanged, whilst wine consumption increases by 3.3 units. Wine consumption also

starts to decrease at thresholds over 45p.

M3. A total ban on off-trade discounting is estimated to change overall consumption by

-3.0%. This is similar to the impact of a minimum price policy in the region 40p

(-2.7%) to 45p (-4.7%). Note that the �total ban� is assumed to prohibit all forms of

price-based promotion, including straight discounting from list price in addition to

multi-buy offers (such as �buy three for the price of two�). More limited types of ban

have not been appraised because the market research data available to the study

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SUMMARY - HARMFUL Value of harm reduction in year 1 (£ millions) Cumulative discounted value of harm reduction over 10 years (£m)

Policy Scenario

Healthcare
costs
Year 1

Crime
costs
Year 1

Absence
costs
Year 1

Unemploy
ment
costs
Year 1

Total
direct
costs
Year 1

Health
QALY
value

Crime
QALY
value

Total value of
harm

reduction
incl. QALYs

Year 1

Healthcare
costs

Years 1-10

Crime
costs

Years 1-10

Absence
costs

Years 1-10

Unemploy
ment costs
Years 1-10

Total direct
costs

Years 1-10

Health
QALY
value

Crime
QALY
value

Total value of
harm

reduction
incl. QALYs
Year 1-10

1 Minimum price 25p -0.2 +.0 -.1 -1.9 -2.1 -.4 -.0 -2.5 -4 + - -16 -20 -15 - -35
2 Minimum price 30p -0.4 -.1 -.1 -4.8 -5.4 -.9 -.1 -6.4 -9 -1 -1 -40 -50 -37 -1 -88
3 Minimum price 35p -0.8 -.2 -.3 -9.9 -11.2 -1.9 -.2 -13.3 -18 -2 -2 -83 -105 -78 -2 -184
4 Minimum price 40p -1.4 -.5 -.5 -17.6 -19.9 -3.4 -.4 -23.7 -31 -4 -4 -146 -185 -138 -3 -327
5 Minimum price 45p -2.2 -.8 -.7 -26.9 -30.5 -5.3 -.6 -36.4 -48 -6 -6 -224 -284 -210 -5 -499
6 Minimum price 50p -3.0 -1.1 -1.0 -37.4 -42.5 -7.4 -.8 -50.7 -66 -9 -8 -311 -394 -292 -8 -694
7 Minimum price 55p -3.9 -1.5 -1.3 -47.7 -54.5 -9.7 -1.1 -65.2 -85 -12 -11 -397 -505 -377 -10 -892
8 Minimum price 60p -4.8 -1.8 -1.6 -56.3 -64.5 -11.8 -1.3 -77.6 -103 -15 -14 -468 -599 -455 -12 -1,067
9 Minimum price 65p -5.6 -2.1 -1.9 -64.1 -73.7 -13.9 -1.5 -89.2 -120 -17 -16 -533 -687 -535 -14 -1,236

10 Minimum price 70p -6.5 -2.4 -2.2 -70.6 -81.7 -16.0 -1.7 -99.4 -137 -20 -18 -587 -763 -609 -16 -1,388

11 Total off-trade discount ban -0.8 -.4 -.3 -12.9 -14.5 -2.1 -.3 -16.9 -18 -3 -3 -108 -132 -81 -2 -215

12 Minimum price 25p + total off-t discount ban -1.0 -.4 -.4 -14.5 -16.2 -2.4 -.3 -18.9 -21 -3 -3 -121 -148 -95 -2 -245
13 Minimum price 30p + total off-t discount ban -1.2 -.4 -.4 -16.7 -18.8 -2.9 -.3 -22.0 -26 -3 -4 -139 -172 -113 -3 -288
14 Minimum price 35p + total off-t discount ban -1.5 -.5 -.5 -20.7 -23.3 -3.8 -.4 -27.5 -33 -4 -5 -172 -215 -148 -4 -366
15 Minimum price 40p + total off-t discount ban -2.1 -.7 -.7 -26.8 -30.3 -5.0 -.5 -35.9 -45 -6 -6 -223 -280 -199 -5 -483
16 Minimum price 45p + total off-t discount ban -2.7 -1.0 -.9 -34.5 -39.1 -6.6 -.7 -46.5 -59 -8 -8 -287 -362 -261 -7 -629
17 Minimum price 50p + total off-t discount ban -3.5 -1.2 -1.2 -43.3 -49.2 -8.5 -.9 -58.6 -75 -10 -10 -360 -455 -333 -9 -797
18 Minimum price 55p + total off-t discount ban -4.3 -1.6 -1.5 -52.0 -59.4 -10.6 -1.2 -71.1 -92 -13 -12 -433 -551 -409 -11 -971
19 Minimum price 60p + total off-t discount ban -5.1 -1.9 -1.8 -59.5 -68.2 -12.5 -1.4 -82.2 -109 -16 -15 -495 -634 -482 -13 -1,129
20 Minimum price 65p + total off-t discount ban -5.9 -2.2 -2.0 -66.6 -76.7 -14.6 -1.6 -92.9 -126 -18 -17 -554 -714 -557 -15 -1,287
21 Minimum price 70p + total off-t discount ban -6.7 -2.4 -2.3 -72.6 -84.0 -16.6 -1.8 -102.4 -142 -20 -19 -603 -785 -629 -17 -1,431

Table A18.12: Summary tables for sensitivity analysis – Nielsen-based preference for off-trade – financial value – harmful drinkers





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