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oa:wnea0002:report:final:part 1:6_promising 6-22

6.3.1 Methods

Two methods were used to developed the potential estimated presented herein. To estimate the
remaining potential in existing construction, we used a bottom up methodology (described below). For
the new construction estimates, a top down method was used. The reason for the difference in
approach is described below.

Existing Construction - Bottom Up Supply Curves

In the case of existing construction, we were able to use a bottom up methodology because of several
factors: 1) we were able to populate the required inputs for our modeling software, DSM ASSYST,
with modest effort by adapted work previously conducted for PGE; 2) most of the remaining potential
in the existing construction market is still associated with simple like-for-like technology substitutions that
lend themselves to the supply-curve methodology used in our model, for example, swapping magnetic
for electronic ballasts, incandescents for CFLs, and retrofitting lighting controls. In addition, cost and
savings data for these technology substitutions are readily available. Given these conditions, we were
able to produce bottom-up supply curves of the remaining technical and economic potential quickly and
with modest use of project resources.

DSM ASSYST uses a series of macro-linked spreadsheets to estimate energy-efficiency potential and
cost effectiveness and to rank energy-efficiency technologies by market segment using user-specified
criteria. Technology-specific engineering data are integrated with utility market saturation data, load
shapes, rate projections, and marginal costs into an easily updated data management system. The result
is that many measures can be evaluated simultaneously using a variety of cost-effectiveness criteria.

Technical Potential-Basic Equation

The core equation used in DSM ASSYST for calculating each technology's technical potential by
market segment is as follows:


Potential of =






x Square


x Applicability



x Complete


x Feasibility


x Savings



Equipment EUI is the energy used per square foot by a particular base-case technology in a given
market segment. This is the energy-using equipment that an energy-efficiency measure replaces or
affects, for example, compact fluorescent bulbs replacing incandescent lighting. Applicability Factor is
the fraction of the sector floor space that is appropriate for conversion to the energy-efficiency
technology in a given market segment, for example, the percent of floor space in the office sector lit by
incandescent bulbs. Not Complete Factor is the fraction of end-use applicable floor space that has

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